| （华南师范大学 体育科学学院，广东 广州 510006） 摘 要：对2014赛季中国足球协会超级联赛比赛中的技战术表现指标和比赛结果进行数学建模，对比赛技战术表现进行探讨。研究样本由240场比赛、480组技战术统计数据组成，研究变量包括3个进球射门相关变量、11个进攻组织相关变量和5个防守相关变量，以及1个比赛情境变量(主客场)。首先通过K型聚类分析法，对比分均衡的比赛进行界定；其次，对每一场比分均衡比赛中的每一项技战术表现指标数值与比赛结果进行广义线性模型创建，以界定比赛技战术表现指标与比赛获胜概率的线性关系；最后，采取数据级数推断法，对每一项技战术表现指标与比赛获胜概率线性关系的显著性进行界定。研究结果显示：(1)比分差距为0~2球的比赛为比分均衡的比赛；(2)进球射门相关变量中，每增加2个标准差的射门次数，球队获胜的概率可以增加16.3%(90%置信区间：±14.6%)，而每增加2个标准差的射正次数，球队获胜的概率则可增加33.8%(±16.2%)；(3)进攻组织相关变量中，增加2个标准差的传球、传球成功率和直塞可以为球队获胜概率带来21.6%(±15.9%)、27.3%(±17.7%)和16.9%(±22.9%)的增量，而增加2个标准差的被犯规次数则会导致球队获胜的概率下降25.4%(±18.6%)；(4)防守相关变量中，每增加2个标准差的抢断次数可以提升14%(±13.6%)的获胜概率，而每增加1张红牌则会降低30.9%(±26.7%)的获胜概率；(5)在2014赛季中超联赛比分均衡的比赛中，主场比赛可以比在客场比赛获胜的概率高9.5%(±15.4%)。研究结果表明：广义线性模型可以对足球比赛中的各项比赛技战术表现指标与比赛胜负的因果关系进行有效的界定，从而可以用来判定哪些比赛技战术指标是比赛制胜指标。创建的模型提供的信息，可以运用于比赛表现评估、对手信息探测、选择和修改训练备战计划等足球运动实践中。 |
LIU Hong-you，PENG Zhao-fang
| （School of Physical Education，South China Normal University，Guangzhou 510006，China) Abstract: The authors carried out mathematical modeling on the technical and tactical performance indexes and match results of Chinese Football Association Super League games in the game seasons of 2014, and analyzed and probed into match technical and tactical performance. The research samples consist of 240 matches and 480 groups of techni-cal and tactical statistic data, while the research variables include goal correlated variables, 11 offense correlated vari-ables, 5 defense correlated variables, and 1 game scenario variable (home or away). Firstly, the authors defined score balanced matches by means of cluster analysis method; secondly, the authors established a general linear model for every tactical performance index value and match result of every score balanced match, so as to define the linear rela-tionship between match technical and tactical performance index and match winning probability; lastly, the authors de-fined the significance of linear relationship between every technical and tactical performance index and match winning probability by using magnitude-based inference. The research results show the followings: 1) the matches with a score difference of 2 goals or less are score balanced matches; 2) in goal correlated variables, every increase of standard de-viation of 2 goal attempts, the team winning probability can increase by 16.3% (±90% confidence interval: ±14.6%), while every increase of standard deviation of 2 on-target goal attempts, the team winning probability increases by 33.8% (±16.2%); 3) in offense correlated variables, an increase of standard deviation of 2 passes, successful passes or through passes can bring an increase of 21.6% (±15.9%), 27.3% (±17.7%) and 16.9% (±22.9%) respectively to team winning possibility, while every increase of standard deviation of 2 fouled times, the team winning probability would decrease by 25.4% (±18.6%); 4) in defense correlated variables, every increase of standard deviation of 2 steals can in-crease the winning probability by 14% (±13.6%), while every increase of 1 red card would decrease the winning prob-ability by 30.9% (±26.7%); 5) in the score balanced matches in Chinese Football Association Super League games in the game seasons of 2014, the winning probability of home matches can be 9.5% (±15.4%) higher than that of away matches.. The research results indicate the followings: the general linear model can effectively define the causal rela-tionship between various match technical and tactical indexes and match winning or losing, thus can be used to deter-mine which match technical and tactical indexes are match winning indexes. Information provided by the established model can be applied to football practice such as game performance evaluation, opponent information detection, se-lecting and revising training or game preparation plans, etc. |
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