| （重庆师范大学 体育学院，重庆 401331） 摘 要：基于单位根检验、协整关系检验、误差修正模型、格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数分析及预测方差分解法，利用2002~2009年的时间序列数据，对我国能源消费结构与体育用品制造业发展之间的动态关系进行了检验。结果表明：(1)体育用品制造业发展与能源、煤炭消费总量之间存在长期均衡协整关系，但与石油、电力消费总量不具有长期均衡协整关系；(2)体育用品制造业发展与能源、煤炭消费总量之间的任何一方变动所产生的离差均会引发自身或对方的变化，从而消除离差实现长期均衡；(3)体育用品制造业发展不是能源、煤炭消费总量的Granger因果关系原因，能源、煤炭消费总量同样也不是体育用品制造业发展的Granger因果关系原因，彼此间不存在严格意义上的单向或双向因果关系；(4)能源、煤炭消费总量短期内均不利于体育用品制造业的发展，但长期将有助于体育用品制造业的发展，体育用品制造业的发展对能源消费总量产生负向影响，但长短期内均有助于煤炭消费总量的增加；(5)体育用品制造业的发展主要受自身波动冲击的影响，在一定程度上也受煤炭消费总量冲击的作用，能源、煤炭消费总量受体育用品制造业发展的冲击效应均较明显。 |
CHEN Po
| （School of Physical Education，Chongqing Normal University，Chongqing 401331，China） Abstract: Based on unit root test, cointegration relation test, error correction model, Granger causality test, impulse response function analysis and predicted variance decomposition methods, and by utilizing time series data acquired between 2002 and 2009, the author tested the dynamic relations between the energy consumption structure and the development of the sports supply manufacturing industry in China, and revealed the following findings: 1) the de-velopment of the sport supply manufacturing industry has a long term balanced cointegration relation with the total consumptions of energy and coal, but no long term balanced cointegration relation with the total consumptions of petroleum and electricity; 2) the deviation produced by the change of any of the development of the sport supply manufacturing industry and the total consumptions of energy and coal will cause the change of itself or the other, thus eliminating deviation and realizing lasting balance; 3) the development of the sport supply manufacturing in-dustry is not the cause in the Granger causality of the total consumptions of energy and coal, and likewise, the total consumptions of energy and coal is not the cause in the Granger causality of the development of the sport supply manufacturing industry; there is no strict unidirectional or bidirectional causality between them; 4) the total con-sumptions of energy and coal are all unfavorable to the development of the sport supply manufacturing industry in a short term, but conducive to the development of the sport supply manufacturing industry in a long term; the devel-opment of the sport supply manufacturing industry produces a negative effect on the total consumption of energy, but is conducive to the increase of the total consumption of coal; 5) the development of the sport supply manufac-turing industry is mainly affected by the impact of its own fluctuation, also by the impact of the total consumption of coal; the total consumptions of energy and coal are significantly affected by the impact of the development of the sport supply manufacturing industry. |
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