| （1.辽宁师范大学 体育学院，辽宁 大连 116029；2.大连交通大学 体育部，辽宁 大连 116028） 摘 要：采用列表法对运动员参赛风险进行识别，利用AHP—FUZZY（层次分析法—模糊综合）模型对运动员参赛风险进行评估，结果表明，我国潜优势项目高水平运动员参赛风险源是多元的，有些还是不可控因素，主要包括：自身因素、对手因素、社会因素和其他因素，风险因素的权重因项目的不同而不同。不同项目的SWOT矩阵分析结果显示，可采用相应的训练方法和手段，减少劣势因素的影响，克服来自地理环境因素、裁判因素、突发事件以及来自对手的经验、体能、战术等方面的威胁，对相应风险加以避免、回避或应对。 |
QUAN Hai-ying1，KONG Wei-feng2
| （1.School of Physical Education，Liaoning Normal University，Dalian 116029，China；2.Department of Physical Education，Dalian Jiaotong University，Dalian 116028，China） Abstract: The authors identified the risks of competition participated by the athletes by using the listing method, evaluated the risks of competition participated by the athletes by utilizing the AHP-FUZZY (layer analysis method – fuzzy comprehensive) model, and revealed the following findings: the sources of the risks of competition partici-pated by high performance Chinese athletes in potentially advantageous events are diversified, some of them are even uncontrollable factors, mainly including the self factor, opponent factor, social factor and other factors; the weight of risk factors varies with different events. The SWOT matrix analysis results for different events show that corresponding training methods and means can be used to reduce the effect of disadvantageous factors, and over-come threats that come from geographical and environmental factors, referee factor, incidents as well as from the experience, physical stamina and tactics of their opponents, so as to avoid or handle corresponding risks. |
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