徐昭瑞1，尚力沛1，陶恩海2，程传银1
(1.南京师范大学 体育科学学院，江苏 南京 210023；2.教育部课程教材研究所，北京 100029)
摘 要：运用PADIS-INT软件预测2026—2035年我国基础教育学龄人口数量和未来10年学校体育资源需求变化。研究发现，2026—2035年我国基础教育学龄人口数量呈快速下降趋势，对基础教育学校体育资源配置产生重要影响。义务教育体育教师数量由缺转剩，高中体育教师数量缺口持续存在。小学体育教师数量在2026—2028年处于短缺状态，2029年首次出现过剩，到2035年盈余17.57万~23.23万人；初中体育教师数量在“十五五”期间处于短缺状态，2031年首次出现过剩，到2035年盈余12.45万人；高中体育教师数量在2026—2035年缺口量逐年缩小。小学学校体育经费需求量持续下降，从2026年828.66亿元降至2035年668.611亿~751.02亿元；初高中学校体育经费需求量先增后降，初中从2026年711.62亿元增至2030年791.36亿元后，降至2035年599.51亿元；高中从2026年418.44亿元增至2033年585.23亿元后，降至2035年519.25亿元。基础教育学校体育场地面积需求持续收缩，小学与初中体育资源闲置压力凸显，10年间小学、初中与高中学校体育场地面积需求量分别减少2.69亿~3.14亿m2、2.58亿m2、0.61亿m2。研究建议：建立学龄人口数量与学校体育资源配置相协调的数据监测体系；通过控制增量和优化存量动态调整我国中小学体育教师数量；优化城乡学校体育经费投入保障学校体育均衡发展；分类提高我国中小学校体育场地资源使用率。
关 键 词：学龄人口；体育教师；学校体育资源；资源配置；经费场地
中图分类号：G807 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1006-7116(2026)05-0101-09
Prediction of school sports resource demand for basic education inChinaand its allocation suggestions from 2026 to 2035 under the background of decline on school-age population
XU Zhaorui1，SHANG Lipei1，TAO Enhai2，CHENG Chuanyin1
(1.Institute of Sports Science，Nanjing Normal University，Nanjing 210023，China；2.Institute of Curriculum and Textbook Research，Ministry of Education，Beijing 100029，China)
Abstract: The PADIS-INT software was used to predict the number of school-age population in Chinese basic education from 2026 to 2035 and also to calculate the demand change for school sports resources in the next 10 years. The study finds that the number of school-age population in Chinese basic education from 2026 to 2035 showed a rapid decline trend, which exerts a significant impact on the allocation of school sports resources for the basic education. The number of physical education teachers in compulsory education decreased from shortage to surplus, while the shortage of physical education teachers in senior high schools would be also existed. The number of physical education teachers in primary schools was in short supply from 2026 to 2028, and then displayed an excessive condition emerged for the first time in 2029, with a surplus of 175 700~232 300 by 2035; the number of physical education teachers in junior high schools was in short supply during the “15th Five-year Plan”, and then displayed an excessive condition emerged for the first time in 2031, with a surplus of 124 500 by 2035; the shortage of physical education teachers in senior high schools gradually declined from 2026 to 2035. The demand for school sports funds in primary schools continued to decline, from 82.866 billion in 2026 to 66.8611 billion~75.102 billion in 2035; and the demand for school sports funds in junior and senior high schools first increased and then decreased, with junior high schools' funds increasing from 711.62 billion in 2026 to 791.36 billion in 2030, and then dropping to 599.51 billion in 2035; senior high schools' funds increased from 418.44 billion in 2026 to 585.23 billion in 2033, and then dropped to 519.25 billion in 2035. The demand for school sports venue area in basic education continued to shrink, and the pressure of idle sports resources in primary and junior high schools became prominent. And over a decade, the demand for school sports venue area in primary schools, junior high schools, and senior high schools decreased by 269~314 million square meters, 258 million square meters, and 61 million square meters, respectively. This study suggests that establishing a data monitoring system to coordinate the number of school-age population with the allocation of school sports resources; dynamically adjust the number of physical education teachers in primary and secondary schools by controlling the increase and optimizing the existing resources; optimizing the allocation of school sports funds in urban and rural schools to ensure the balanced development with school sports; and classifying and improving the utilization rate of school sports venue resources.
Keywords: school-age population；physical education teachers；school sports resources；resource allocation；funding and venues