赵胜国1，王健2
(1.巢湖学院 体育学院，安徽 巢湖 238000；2.华中师范大学 体育学院，湖北 武汉 430079)
摘 要：基于有效需求理论的梳理，辨析体育消费潜力的概念框架，构建居民体育消费潜力指标体系，并采用熵值法通过结合2015—2023年我国居民体育消费潜力的多维数据进行实证研究。结果表明：(1)现阶段我国居民体育消费潜力指标体系主要包括由体育消费需要、体育消费能力和体育消费环境3个维度构成的一级指标，体育消费的需要主体、需要客体、支付能力、参与能力、社会环境和市场环境6个要素构成的二级指标，以及29个具体指标测项。该指标体系能有效测度和对比不同年度居民体育消费潜力之间的具体水平及主要问题。(2)2015—2023年我国居民体育消费潜力总体呈现平稳性上升趋势，但纵向不同阶段的动力因素呈现典型的动态变化轨迹，以及横向不同维度内部要素之间存在明显的动力支撑差异。研究建议分区域、分层级推广应用该测度指标，分维度、分要素精准施策推动居民体育消费潜力有效释放。
关 键 词：体育消费潜力；多维测度；动力要素；有效需求
中图分类号：G80-05 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1006-7116(2026)01-0083-09
Multi-dimensional measurement of residents' sports consumption potential based on effective demand: Theoretical framework and empirical examination
ZHAO Shengguo1，WANG Jian2
(1.School of Physical Education，Chaohu University，Chaohu 238000，China；
2.School of Physical Education，Central China Normal University，Wuhan 430079，China)
Abstract: Based on the sorting of the effective demand theory, this paper distinguishes the concept framework of sports consumption potential, constructs an index system for residents' sports consumption, and also uses the entropy method to empirically study the multi-dimensional data of residents' sports consumption potential in China from 2015 to 2023. The results showed that: (1) the index system of residents' sports consumption potential in China at this stage mainly includes a primary index composed of three dimensions including consumption needs, sports consumption capacity, and sports consumption environment, a secondary index composed of six elements including the main body of sports consumption needs, the object of sports consumption, payment capacity, participation capacity, social environment and market environment, and 29 specific indicators, which could effectively measure and compare specific level and main problems existing between residents' sports consumption potential in different years; (2) the overall trend of residents' sports consumption potential in China from 2015 to 2023 showed a stable upward trend, but the driving factors in different stages of the vertical direction showed a typical dynamic change trajectory, and displayed obvious differences in the dynamic support among the elements within different dimensions in the horizontal direction. It has been suggested that the measurement index should be popularized and applied by distinguishing regions and levels, and the policy should be precisely implemented to effectively release the potential of residents' sports consumption by distinguishing dimensions and elements.
Keywords: sports consumption potential；multi-dimensional measurement；motivation elements；effective demand