邓卫权1，岑聪1，詹新寰2
(1.华东交通大学 体育与健康学院，江西 南昌 330013；2.江西财经大学 体育学院，江西 南昌 330013)
摘 要：整合2017年、2018年和2021年中国综合社会调查(CGSS)数据，基于第二次人口转型理论和休闲理论，借助普通最小二乘回归模型和结构方程模型实证检验体育参与对已婚青年生育意愿的作用机制。结果显示：(1)体育参与显著正向影响已婚青年的生育意愿，经一系列稳健性检验和外部检验后仍成立；(2)体育参与通过提升已婚青年的婚姻满意度和主观幸福感提升生育意愿；(3)体育参与显著提升男性、低龄和接受高等教育已婚青年的生育意愿。研究认为，未来人口发展战略的着力点应充分考虑已婚青年的个体需求，加快完善民生保障，从体育服务建设和生活质量视角创建生育友好的生活环境，促进休闲与家庭生活互益互补。
关 键 词：体育社会学；体育参与；生育意愿；婚姻满意度；主观幸福感；中国综合社会调查
中图分类号：G80-05 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1006-7116(2025)02-0077-10
The influence of sports participation on fertility intention for the married youth
——An empirical study based on the CGSS data
DENG Weiquan1，CEN Cong1，ZHAN Xinhuan2
(1.College of Physical and Health Education，East China Jiaotong University，Nanchang 330013，China；
2.School of Physical Education，Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics，Nanchang 330013，China)
Abstract: This study integrates data from the 2017, 2018, and 2021ChinaGeneral Social Survey (CGSS) and applies the second demographic transition theory and leisure theory. Using ordinary least squares regression and structural equation models, the study empirically examines the impact, mechanism, and heterogeneity of sports participation on fertility intentions among married youth. The findings suggest that: (1) sports participation significantly and positively affects fertility intentions among married youth, and this effect holds after a series of robustness and external checks; (2) sports participation enhances fertility intentions by improving marital satisfaction and subjective well-being among married youth; (3) sports participation significantly increases fertility intentions among male, younger individuals, and those with higher education. Therefore, the study holds that future population development strategies should fully consider the individual needs of married youth, accelerating improvements in social security, and fostering a fertility-friendly environment by enhancing sports services and life quality, so as to promote mutual benefits between leisure and family life.
Keywords: sports sociology；sports participation；fertility intention；marital satisfaction；subjective well-being；China general social survey