| （中国矿业大学 体育学院，江苏 徐州 221008） 摘 要：对中国参加历届奥运会的竞赛成绩以及新的奥运备战期世界体坛竞争格局进行分析，并结合奥运会东道主效应来预测第29届夏季奥运会我国奥运军团的竞技实力。结果表明：在奥运会上我国已形成了跳水、射击等7个金牌优势项群；雅典奥运会后美国、俄罗斯等国家调整竞技体育发展战略，强化优势项目，实力强劲反弹；我国优势项目虽保持优势，但面临规则大幅修改和部分优势项目被取消的严峻挑战；潜优势和落后项目成绩虽有突破，但发挥不稳定，没有形成绝对优势。 |
ZHANG Yu-chao，WANG Chao-jun
| （School of Physical Education，China University of Mining and Technology，Xuzhou 221008，China） Abstract: The author analyzed the competition performance of Chinese Olympic team in previous Olympic Games and the competition structure of world sports circles in the new period of Olympic preparation, predicted the com-petitive strengths of Chinese Olympic team in the 29th summer Olympic Games by combining the Olympic host ef-fect, and revealed the following findings: in previous Olympic Games China has formed 7 gold metal competition advantageous events such as diving and shooting; after the Athens Olympic Games countries such as America and Russia have adjusted their competitive sport development strategies and strengthened their advantageous events, so their strengths are greatly enhanced; although China maintains its cutting edges in its advantageous events, China is facing serious challenges brought by the major revision of rules and the cancellation of some of its advantageous events; although Chinese Olympic team has made breakthroughs in its performance in its potentially advantageous and disadvantageous events, its performance is not stable, and no absolute advantage has been formed. |
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