男子跳远全国纪录的等维灰数递补GM（1，1）模型及预测

(温州师范学院体育系，浙江温州325003)

摘要：针对运动成绩变化规律的模糊性、未知性等，运用灰色系统理论的灰色模型方法，建立了男子跳远全国纪录的等维灰数递补GM（1，1）预测模型，并进行后验差检验和关联度分析。结果表明，预测模型精度为一级（GOOD）。同时，运用该预测模型对2002年跳远成绩进行预测。

关键词：男子跳远；全国纪录；等维灰数递补模型

中图分类号：G80 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1006-7116(2002)05-0134-02

Research on the same-distance greynumber's step-supplement Model GM(1,1) and forcasting of the nationl record of long jump
JIN Chuan-jiang， TONG Li-ping

(Department of Physical Education,Wenzhou Teachers' College,Wenzhou 325003,China)
Abstract: This article applies the grey model approach in the grey system theory to set up the Samedistance Grey munmer's Stepsupplement forecasting model GM(1,1)of the national record of long jump,begin directed against the ambiguity,unknown and so on.It also performs the examinnation of posterior difference and analysis of the relative degree.It turns out the precision of forecasting model is equal to first class(GOOD).At the same time,this model has been applied to forecast the sport achievement of 2002.
Key words: men long jump；national record；same-distance grey number step-supplement model

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